03/01/2004 Archived Entry: "Post-Oscar Oscar Predictions"

So it's a day late, I was way too busy yesterday to write this up properly. Check out the nominees list here. I'm also predicting only for catergories where I've either seen at least 1/2 the movies nominated and have an actual opinion on the matter, else it's pretty pointless. Here we go.

Actor in Leading Role: I'd give it to Johnny Depp cuz Capt'n Jack Sparrow was just so damn cool but I think the oscar will go to Bill Murray.

Actor in Supporting Role: Ken Watanabe but Tim Robbins will win because the Oscars favour the mentally handicapped.

Actress in a Leading Role: Charlize Theron, she was a completely different person for Monster both physically and psychologically; this shouldn't even be a close call.

Animated Feature Film: Finding Nemo. Triplets of Belleville was weird, right brained, and artsy but Nemo was definately more entertaining. Not sure why Brother Bear was nominated it was such a typical Disney film, Sinbad would have been a better contender.

Art Direction: LOTR: ROTK though Last Samurai would also be a good choice.

Costume Design: LOTR: ROTK, no contest. Everything had to be created from scratch and not just RECREATED to reflect certain eras.

Directing: ditto. I'd love to see Peter Jackson go up there with his wild hair, shorts, t-shirt and no shoes.

Make Up: same; how can the makeup for some seafaring men even compare to the work that went into making orcs, dwarfs, elves, and hobbits?

Visual Effects: again, but I'm somewhat surprised neither Matrix sequels made it into this category. If nothing else, they had spectacular effects.

Best Picture: Gotta be ROTK. Even if it weren't the year's best movie its gotta get the oscar just for the huge undertaking and the consistent quality across the trilogy.

Replies: 20 comments

I agree with all your predictions with the exception of best actor. I wanted it to go to Bill Murray.

Posted by Romer @ 03/01/2004 01:26 PM EST

ha, I was right for everything except Bill Murray. Sean Penn in Mystic River was completely overrated anyways.

Posted by Rayne @ 03/01/2004 01:43 PM EST

I liked Bill Murray in Lost in Translation, the movie was phenominal, but I really don't think it was his best role ever, or even the best out of those 5 for that matter. But I do give him credit for doing a good job in a great movie. I was hoping for Johnny Depp in this one, i was really shocked to see Sean Penn get it (he didn't get anything for I am Sam did he?). But now I really want to see mystic river.

Posted by Mike @ 03/01/2004 08:50 PM EST

What would you say was Murray's best role ever, Mike? *curious*

Posted by Romer @ 03/02/2004 06:48 AM EST

of course sean penn was going to get it ... it's all political

he was nominated three times before this year (i am sam, dead man walking and ... for some reason i can't remember the third) ... and he never got it b/c he refused the play the oscar game ... he denounced the awards saying they were wrong, etc .. wouldn't attend the ceremony ... etc, etc ... but this year ... he played the game ... he softened his stance on the whole thing ... which apparently was in no small part due to the help of his wife (robin ... forever known to me as princess buttercup)

the academy often likes to give awards for past achievements ... unless there is really someone outstanding ... the academy was also recognizing that sean penn is highly touted as one of the best (if not the best) actor of his generation ...

why i didn't choose penn for my own oscar pool is beyond me ... i think i held out hope that at the last minute he'd decide the oscars are garbage again and start giving a negative campaign ... although, the voting ended january 20 and he was still playing the game then ... so i guess what he did afterwards wouldn't really matter

Posted by melpie @ 03/02/2004 09:49 AM EST

Sean Penn winning this year is like Denzel Washington winning for Training Day. I didn't see how he was possibly better than Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind. All he did was swear, fire a shotgun, and swear some more...;). Just like Mel said, its political. They wanted to hit two birds with one stone that year (Washington and Berry), while honouring Sidney Poitier.

Posted by dAN @ 03/02/2004 11:22 AM EST

also ... denzel got his award b/c he should have gotten it for the hurricane (the academy also likes to fix past mistakes ... giving ppl awards when the performance itself might not have warranted it, but the actor's achievements do)... and it was a change from his usual roles which the academy always seems to like

and of course ... you gotta make the political statement, right?

Posted by melpie @ 03/02/2004 11:38 AM EST

Bill Murray's best role was in Ghostbusters as Dr. Peter Venkman

Posted by Doug @ 03/02/2004 12:49 PM EST

I dunno about Bill Murray, I never really liked him until LIT. Is Penn really considered one of the best actors of his generation? I don't think he's too great either =P

Posted by Rayne @ 03/02/2004 06:03 PM EST

I think Penn is a great actor...best of his generation I'm not so sure of. I'd say he got swept under the rug a bit, maybe because of this oscar stance he had, but i don't think there's been a movie where i didn't enjoy his performance.

Jerome, as for your question I'd have to say his most memorable role for me would have to be in Groundhog day. Not quite the same style of movie as Lost in Translation, nor even near the callibre, but I just loved him in it.

Posted by Mike @ 03/02/2004 08:13 PM EST

Yeah Mike, Groundhog Day was a great movie. Up until LiT, I'd say it was his most memorable performance for me, too.

Posted by Romer @ 03/03/2004 09:49 AM EST

yep rayne ... penn's considered one of the best actors of his generation ... or that's what numerous critics claimed in their oscar predictions (i did a little research)

Posted by melpie @ 03/03/2004 12:40 PM EST

I think "best actor of his generation" gets overused a lot. It's used to describe Brando, Paccino, DeNiro, Nicholson, Pitt, Depp, Norton, Osmond.

Posted by Rayne @ 03/03/2004 03:12 PM EST

brando is of one generation ... nicholson, deniro and paccino are probably the next ... then pitt, depp and norton fall into the next ... and osmond? donny osmond? why is he on your list?

(i really can't think of any other osmond actors)

Posted by melpie @ 03/03/2004 03:44 PM EST

I tend to agree with Brando and DeNiro as being the best actors of their generation in mainstream filmmaking.

As for the newer generations, it's hard to judge, but Norton impresses me by the variety of his dramatic roles and their credibility, even if he's been playing in many not so good movies lately. I don't think Brad Pitt or Johnny Depp have the profile for the title, even if they're excellent.

I haven't seen many Sean Penn movies, though, so I can't jauge him very well. He seems like an extremely emotive guy and actor.

Posted by Étienne @ 03/03/2004 03:48 PM EST

crap, I meant Osmont. As in Haley Joel

Posted by Rayne @ 03/03/2004 03:53 PM EST

i've been rather disappointed with norton as of late ... like he's playing roles anyone could do ... i don't see him bringing something to the role that really defines it and makes it memorable ...

i think johnny depp has that quality though ... can you imagine someone else as edward scissorhands? although, he seems to have a thing for playing weird characters (i remember seeing an interview with him shortly after he put out "nick of time" and he said it was one of his most difficult roles b/c he had to be normal ... and he'd never done that before) ...

i have never really heard tell of pitt as the best though ... he too puts in solid performances ... but nothing truly ... extraordinary ... he'll be forgotten in the end

Posted by melpie @ 03/03/2004 05:31 PM EST

Ed Norton was quite something in Primal Fear, Rounders, American History X and Fight Club if you ask me. Anyone couldn't have played any of those roles as well imo.

I'm just sad that i can't add any post-1999 movies to that list. :S

Posted by Étienne @ 03/03/2004 06:03 PM EST

yeah ... post 99 hasn't been good for norton ... i don't know if i thought he was all that spectacular in rounders (but then i wasn't a huge fan of the movie) ... but he did a great job in the others ... and now it seems like he's just trying to coast ... and use his name ... like in the score and the italian job ... fine performances .. but a little ... ordinary ... ppl still see them though expecting great things from him ... much like they do with kevin spacey

Posted by melpie @ 03/04/2004 09:29 AM EST

informacion sobre ALL PACINO

Posted by fernanda gelardi @ 05/15/2004 05:40 PM EST