10/12/2005 Archived Entry: "The Sound of Inevitability"

I hate it when I know that something bad is going to happen, that I could and should stop it, but yet take the opposite action of the one I should and get screwed in the process. What am I talking about?

Poker, of course!

When I’m playing and I KNOW that the opponent has better cards (sometimes because my cards are only so-so, sometimes because the other player only ever plays very strong cards, sometimes because they are betting like they can’t be stopped, etc) and there’re only 2 cards in the whole deck that could help me (or worse yet, none!) but I still persist in the betting and the calling hoping that that one card will come out, no matter how unlikely.

It’s terrible. It is basically a conflict between the rational mind knowing and saying that it’s already over and to fold before accumulating higher losses versus the irrational self that has the need to see things through while hoping that fortune favours the bold.

I think the “I have to bet” mentality has definitely hurt me more than not. Take this somewhat extreme example: of 5 cards on deck, there are four diamonds, you hold a very low diamond card (say a two), and the other player is betting very high (he’s either got you beat with a higher flush or is downright bluffing). For me, this is completely a “you have to bet” scenario because there’s no way I can fold a flush even if it’s the lowest one possible. But yet, it just seems obvious that I’ve been beaten.

This is another example of the main theme of my last Soc class: duality. It’s playing the game according to the “rules” I’ve read against playing it on instinct and feeling.

Replies: 9 comments

There are times when I share your "I have to bet" mentality, especially when someone raises pre-flop and I'm holding a 7 and 2 unsuited. I'll usually play because of my fear of regret. To fold and possibly see a flop of 7, K, 2...then 7...then Q is not something I'd want to miss out on (Q and K being arbitrary, except where it makes other players confident in their own hands, hence betting high and suffering the wrath of my full house).

Then there's the "all-in" call. Its ever so hard to back down from one. For me, facing an "all-in" call goes beyond the cards...I feel most cowardly not to meet the challenge. Its a question of pride. Not saying I'll match such a bet every time, but there are clearly times I do when perhaps I shouldn't. Anyway, Saturday was disgusting...three games, no wins...its time to return to my dominating ways of having 5 game winning streaks. My streak starts this Saturday...you heard it here first...;)!

Posted by dAN @ 10/12/2005 02:15 PM EST

Is it always the case that your instincts or "gut feeling" is always the irrational choice. It seems obvious that it would be, but I just thought I would ask. In any case, you need to be lucky to be good and good to be lucky, so you might as well play it by hand.

Posted by Doug @ 10/12/2005 09:18 PM EST

jah, you touched upon something I forgot to mention, which is that folding is like showing weakness after posturing and that really goes against my poker principles somehow.

I'd say that gut feeling isn't always wrong. But It's usually safer to go for the rational impression.

Posted by Rayne @ 10/12/2005 10:32 PM EST

Why would you want to play 7-2 off suit when someone else raises preflop? Who care's if they are bluffing, the odds show that no matter what they have, they can't have -worse- than you lol. Even with the whole "I'll never back down" mentality, it's still asking for a self-RageQuitPokerTable situation.

Posted by Dave @ 10/12/2005 10:51 PM EST

nah...you're all wrong...it leads to gambling problems :P

see you at the tables!!!

Posted by Gosia @ 10/13/2005 10:53 AM EST

"My streak starts this Saturday...you heard it here first"

wrong =P

Posted by Rayne @ 10/16/2005 03:25 PM EST

Hmm...fine...insult me...as my vengeance...Friday, your place...three times...:P!!!

Posted by dAN @ 10/18/2005 12:28 PM EST

Man, I felt so defeated that one time you won 2 games in a row. Terrible =P

Posted by Rayne @ 10/18/2005 04:41 PM EST

This will feel worse...;)!

Posted by dAN @ 10/18/2005 06:50 PM EST